Shall ye Deploy, or Shall ye Hoard thy Capital?
One number tells you whether financial conditions are loose or tight. The real rate (nominal rate minus inflation) will tell you if it's a good time to save or a good time to borrow. Choose a scenario below and read the verdict.
Saving beats debt.
Every headline rate you hear — prime, Fed funds, the 10-year, your mortgage — is a nominal number, and nominal numbers lie by omission. The Saver's Almanac subtracts inflation from the rate you care about and tells you plainly whether the moment favors savers or borrowers. The three pairings above are matched by duration, so you're always comparing a rate and an inflation measure that speak to the same time horizon, rather than mixing a 10-year yield against a monthly CPI print.
The sign of that number is also shorthand for something bigger than your own savings account: a positive real rate means financial conditions are tight — money is expensive to borrow once inflation is accounted for, which cools spending and investment. A negative real rate means conditions are loose — borrowing is effectively subsidized by inflation, which tends to encourage spending, debt, and risk-taking. It's the same math the Fed watches when deciding whether policy is restrictive or accommodative — just applied to whatever rate matters to you.
Semi-regular readings and notes on what's moving the number live at the newsletter.